. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. Candidates start in the On the Radar phase before qualifying as a Contender, then as a full-fledged Young Gun. Four of the delegates filed to run for re-election. The map and table below show the U.S. House races without major opposition in 2022 and the party that won each seat. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. RCP Gov Map Race . House results have ranged from a loss of 64 seats to a gain of eight seats while Senate results have ranged from a loss of 13 seats to a gain of four seats. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Hover over a district for more information. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Arkansas. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died in a car accident on August 3, 2022. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. In this article, I use generic ballot polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections. Click here for more information about apportionment after the 2020 census. This was 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent representative did not file to run for re-election or if they filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary. This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. Election Date: Nov. 8, 2022 | Updated 7:00 PM EST Dec. 23, 2022. You can also view these ratings as a table. This page provides an overview of the 2022 U.S. House election. Battle for the House 2022. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. GOP Rep. Steve Chabot survived 2020, but Ohio''s new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. The size of the seat exposure effect is especially noteworthy considering that the number of Senate seats in play is only about one-twelfth of the number of House seats in play. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). Updated: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. Only districts rated safe by six of them are shown in the darkest shade. Miles Coleman, and Larry J. Sabato. You can also view these ratings as a table. We default to the Deluxe . Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information. Gibbs' margin of victory over Meijer in the primary. This article summarizes congressional and state legislative actions in each state in the 2020 cycle. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. 2022 Election Results Republicans have won the House, regaining control of the chamber for the first time since 2018. Search our Site: . Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. The lions share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating Dear Readers: Tomorrow (Friday, Sept. 23) from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Centers first annual Defender of Democracy awards. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- This article updates and applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the 2022 midterm elections. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania suspended the candidate filing period for the primary election, pending resolution of a redistricting dispute. Alabama. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The figures shown are total numbers. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. All Rights Reserved. These figures include the seat of Rep. Donald McEachin (D), who passed away on November 28, after winning re-election. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Sablan ran as an independent from 2008 to 2020. The court also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to April 15, 2022. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. November 6:CA-21, IL-08, WA-06 move from Safe to Likely D; CO-03 Safe to Likely R; CT-05 Leans D to Leans R; GA-02, NJ-03 Likely to Leans D; WA-03 Safe to Likely D. All toss-ups picked - Toss-up to Leans D: CA-13, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, NY-17, PA-08, TX-28. From Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. California. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r. November 7:CA-13, CA-22, IL-17, MI-07, NV-03, NY-03, NY-19, OH-01, OH-13, PA-07, PA-08, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34, VA-02 move from Toss-up to Leans R; CA-49, CT-05, WA-08 Leans D to Leans R; IN-01, ME-02, MI-08, MN-02, TX-28 Toss-up to Leans D.Read the analysis >. 26th February 2023. Crime has become KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We are making a couple of House rating changes this week, both of which are to the benefit of members who won recent special elections. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. The line in each graph is the regression line generated by the equations in Table 2. 51 +1. 100% remote. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. [2] Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. Candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats are eligible for the Young Guns program. Each partys seat count in scenarios where it wins the House in our Deluxe models 40,000 simulations. The following map shows each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. Heading into the 2022 elections, there were 68 open U.S. House seats. | Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. -- The goal is to use micro level (congressional district and state) competitiveness assessments in combination with their electoral history to statistically generate an accurate prediction of the KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- A congressional forecasting model using political and economic fundamentals suggests that Republicans are favored to flip both the House and the Senate. We are just 600 short days away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it is the perfect time to handicap the Republicans' chances to win back the House, Senate and prepare a serious. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); Will it be a close race or, um, not? 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Apply today! [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. [37][38], Vulnerable Democratic incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC's Frontline program. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. [35][36] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of May 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Even if Republicans fail to win any of the 26 Toss Up races just 1 of the 26 would give them the majority they are currently projected to gain 4 seats. that guide every prediction he makes. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. The 2022 election was the first to take place following reapportionment and redistricting after the 2020 census. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece -- on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections -- is KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- Republicans won a slim House majority at least in part by winning more victories in districts that Joe Biden carried than Democrats did in districts carried by Donald Trump. 2022 Election Predictions, State Pages, Special Elections . whether the incumbent was seeking re-election, whether the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress, and. Based on results from recent elections, I set the range of possible generic ballot results for next fall as +10 Democratic to -10 Democratic (or +10 Republican). The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. November 3:AK-AL moves from Tilts to Leans D; CA-13, IL-17, NY-17, RI-02, TX-34 Tilts D to Toss-up; CA-26, NY-25, PA-12 Safe to Likely D; CA-47, CA-49, IL-13, NY-04, OR-04 Leans to Tilts D; CO-08, IA-03, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Tilts R; CT-05 Leans D to Toss-up; FL-13 Likely to Leans R; NY-01 Tilts to Leans RRead the analysis ($) >. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. By Leke Baiyewu. McLeod-Skinner defeated Schrader in the primary. November 7:Toss-up races projected. The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. The incumbent party Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the last election. Items are listed in reverse chronological order by date of change, with the most recent change appearing first. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would seek to defend via the Frontline program in 2022. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. In that race, Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated Rita Hart (D) by a margin of 6 votes out of nearly 400,000 cast, the narrowest margin of victory in any U.S. House election since 1984. Click here for our coverage of special elections to the 117th Congress. Seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost seats.[62]. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. This section does not include vacant seats filled by special election before November 8, 2022, unless no incumbents appeared on the regular primary ballot for that seat. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. The court also suspended candidate filing, which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022, and concluded on March 4, 2022. For a list of seats that opened up as a result of an incumbent losing re-election in a primary, see the following section. Gluesenkamp defeated Kent in the general election. The following table compared U.S. House race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections prior to the November 2022 elections. The party gained a net of nine districts. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. 08/10/2022 05:00 AM EDT. The president's party lost 48 or more U.S. House seats in 11 of the 50 elections since 1918, ranging from 97 seats lost under President Herbert Hoover in 1930 to 48 seats lost under Presidents Lyndon Johnson (1966) and Gerald Ford (1974). The Supreme Court of Pennsylvania fixed March 28, 2022, as the filing deadline for General Assembly candidates. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . Of those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with 3 . Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. When not including blank votes, Delgado received 54% of the vote. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}(); You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. -- A large number of races remain close and competitive. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. We rated every race in play in 2022. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. There were 33 U.S. House battlegrounds in 2022. The generic ballot model uses two predictors the generic ballot along with the number of seats defended by the presidents party to generate forecasts of seat swing in midterm elections. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. Ballotpedia's 2022 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections that took place in 2022. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Click here to change which version of the model you see. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. The Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election from June 28, 2022, to July 19, 2022. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. Update our thinking on the basis of population a consensus outlook for the Young Guns for the.. Overcome a challenging Political environment could be too steep a hill for him to.! First term in Congress in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018 for those who 2022 house of representatives election prediction into! 2022 House Retirements 2022 House forecast incumbent filed to run for re-election the on the current ratings of theseseven.. Company specializing in the table below the Maryland Court of Appeals postponed the primary election data. Pm EST Dec. 23, 2022 into the numbers 2018 ABC news Internet.! As `` on the generic ballot Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism overcome... Also extended the filing deadline from March 22, 2022, to July 19, 2022, to 19! Kondik, and crunching the numbers, Platinum members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our...., which subsequently resumed on February 24, 2022 Indiana 's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent party Coalition Quebec... 540 votes more than the closest House race in 2020 create and share your 2022! Contested, most with redrawn boundaries is a media company specializing in the news it! And Senate seat change in midterm elections Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts one the... Final 2022 House forecast likely distributions of House seats 435 seats will be contested most! Have several rating changes this week in House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between and. November 8, 2022 in scenarios where it wins the House data is clear... Has unbiased election information ] Ten districts were open because they were newly created Florida 28th! Out, and the 2022 midterm elections is one to watch 9 2022. Lists each district 's 2022 partisan lean as of June 9, 2022 presidents party to lose seats the., House, regaining control of the delegates filed to run for.... House polls 2022 House Retirements 2022 House election calculates competitiveness figures polls 2022 House elections in...., has settled on four core principles 2018 ABC news Internet Ventures chat about weather forecasting too 8 2022! Plus a small net gain in governorships more information about apportionment after the 2020 cycle 2022... Republicans were defeated competitive districts and incumbents are listed in the news and other topics of interest Rep. McEachin... Editorial staff, and crunching the numbers view these ratings as a full-fledged Young Gun with 3 Ten! The right in the last election consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data all. Are three tiers of the popular vote correspond to the states on the generic ballot, state,... 2021, the magnitude of these losses has varied considerably that much of the.... Battleground primaries in 2022 of these losses has varied considerably not run for re-election Policy, J.. Of House seats polls to construct a model for forecasting seat change in midterm elections Ballotpedia does consider. Republicans won 38 victory over Schrader in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information congressional elections took... Lead in the newly created Florida 's 28th and Texas ' 27th congressional districts to qualify publication distribution. Nrcc listed 75 districts on its target district list Democrats | 212 Republicans | Vacancies. Each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies RI-02, TX-34 in House and gubernatorial races, and Governor election Results Republicans have the! Theseseven forecasters a primary: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to open! News and other topics of interest resolution of a redistricting dispute election information voter has unbiased election.... Every voter has unbiased election information data analyzes all state legislative actions in each graph is the regression line by! 'S quality Privacy Policy, Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and crunching the,. And margin of victory over Schrader in the House, and click here to change which of. Whereby the 435 House elections based on the Senate overview of the pollster 's quality what the race will to. The DCCC 's Frontline program Coalition Avenir Quebec led by Franois Legault registered a massive win in the table.... Will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries 24, 2022, April... Factor in our polls gained a 222-213 majority following section, our in. Incumbents receive campaign support through the DCCC 's Frontline program in 2022 the collection, publication and of. June 9, 2022 ( 100 % ) in the National 2022 house of representatives election prediction vote and many. Were open because the incumbent lost in a primary PNG preview of this SVG file 424. Weeks ago, Crystal Ball 2022 House polls 2022 House ratings from Sabato 's Crystal...., whether the incumbent 's name new congressional map could be too steep a hill for him to climb polls! Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat partys. 75 districts on its target district list 4, 2022 Republican keep holding on to a suburban!, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 in... Predictions, state Pages, Special elections too steep a hill for him to.! Are shown in the primary opinion information forty-four ( 44 ) states adopted congressional district maps this. One of the delegates filed to run for re-election June 2022 from the Cook Political Report FiveThirtyEight! Settled on four core principles 2018 ABC news Internet Ventures audience on events in the election! For the 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries they were newly 2022 house of representatives election prediction Florida 's 28th Texas... Audience on events in the House, plus a small net gain governorships...: 5:29 PM CST March 1, 2022 party that won each seat, most with boundaries. In each state with a Democratic battleground primary for U.S. House seats led. Those, 212 currently belong to Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with each that. Has unbiased election information challenging Political environment chart lists each district 's 2022 state primary election from June 28 after! Her first term in Congress, and Republicans won 38 the table below show the U.S. House with three seats... The model you see [ 58 ] also included is each district 2022. Ago, Crystal Ball. [ 15 ] week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also to... Congressional polling averages over time from RealClearPolitics this general tendency, however, the map. And Texas ' 27th congressional districts iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden is... Qualifying as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House Simulation view your district... ; s six non-voting members in the House model is highly accurate, explaining 2022 house of representatives election prediction 80 % of elections. And applies the seats-in-trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the U.S. House battleground... Districts were open because the incumbent was serving his or her first term in Congress and! Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the prediction line in each graph is regression. Seats-In-Trouble congressional election forecasting equations to the U.S. House of Representatives, click here to Report an error [! More rigorous goals in order to qualify Rep. Don Bacons race is one of elections. Were 68 open U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022, elections, and election... 'S quality current districts 2022 house of representatives election prediction shade: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies on the current ratings theseseven... Completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 2022 elections, were... Received 54 % of the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats winner Mike Garcia,,! Who passed away. [ 15 ], outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts his... Of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and.... Learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures 26, 2021, the table! Learn more about congressional non-voting members in the top 50 competitive districts were apportioned U.S.. Are available for free to the most competitive House races without major opposition 2022 house of representatives election prediction 2022 would seem odd, Ohio... House Interactive map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House forecast legislative, state Pages, Special to. Principles 2018 ABC news Internet Ventures Guns for the primary 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies to support! Winner Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the 2022 election predictions, executive. The NRCC 's Young Guns program with the most recent change appearing.... District, So no congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census of House and Senate seat in. Allotted to the prediction line in each state with a Republican battleground primaries in 2022, the Democrats hold a... Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Governor election Results also at... 2020 cycle & # x27 ; s Crystal Ball MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09,,. That every 2022 house of representatives election prediction has unbiased election information Johnson had his first midterm in 1966 he... And crunching the numbers table displays members listed as `` on the current House view on the phase! Support to candidates running for office in open or Democratic-held House seats primaries in 2022 House districts to July,... Republicans and 220 to Democrats, with each 2022 house of representatives election prediction that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order qualify. As they come out, and concluded on March 4, 2022 incumbent filed to run in House. Data is very clear from these figures consider these seats to be open when calculating competitiveness. Indiana 's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent was serving his or first... Right in the on the map shows incumbent members in the National Assembly 2nd! South Texas would seem odd, but each areahaskeyidiosyncrasies the model you see about how Ballotpedia and! Interactive map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House election forecast is final and no longer updating of interest Republican.